WASHINGTON (RNS) — A brand new survey experiences former President Donald Trump expanded his strong assist amongst white evangelicals within the 2020 election, however President Joe Biden received partly by making important positive aspects amongst Catholics and non-evangelical Protestants.
That’s in keeping with Pew Analysis’s new “Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory” examine unveiled on Wednesday (June 30). The findings, primarily based on a survey of individuals confirmed by public information to have voted in 2020, confirmed that Trump was supported by 84% of white evangelicals in 2020, a rise of seven proportion factors over the 77% of white evangelicals who voted for him in 2016.
Trump, who launched his “Evangelicals for Trump” initiative in January 2020 at a principally Spanish-speaking church in Florida, additionally barely elevated his assist amongst Protestant Christians general, increasing his margin from 56% in 2016 to 59% final 12 months.
However there’s proof Biden, who additionally ran an expansive faith outreach program throughout his marketing campaign, chipped away at Trump’s spiritual coalition by making up floor with different religion teams.
Amongst Catholics general, Biden — himself a Catholic — fought Trump to a stalemate. After Catholics backed Trump (52%) over Hillary Clinton (44%) in 2016, Biden managed to scale back the unfold to a statistical tie, with 49% supporting him in comparison with 50% who stated they voted for Trump.
Pew didn’t present information to match Hispanic Catholic votes in 2016 to 2020, however there are indications Biden courted favor amongst his fellow white Catholics — a robust voting bloc in Rust Belt swing states. Whereas 31% stated they voted for Clinton in 2016, 42% forged their ballots for Biden in 2020. Trump received the demographic in each elections (64% in 2016 and 57% in 2020), however a shift towards Biden minimize the previous president’s profitable margin with the group by greater than half.
There was additionally a notable — albeit much less dramatic — motion amongst white, non-evangelical Protestants. Solely 37% of the group supported Clinton in 2016, with Trump securing 57% of their vote that 12 months. Trump received the identical proportion final November, however Biden managed to persuade 43% of the group to again his marketing campaign.
The shifts echo longstanding warnings from students and activists who pointed to cracks in Trump’s assist amongst white Catholics and white non-evangelical Protestants as early as May 2019. On the time, specialists famous Trump’s favorability rankings have been way more elastic with these teams than amongst white evangelicals, a dependable base for him even amid numerous scandals.
Pew’s findings may vindicate Democratic strategists who insisted on strong religion outreach efforts within the 2020 marketing campaign. Along with working to compile endorsements from faith leaders and dedicating an entire section of the 2020 Democratic National Convention to a dialogue of his religion, Biden repeatedly invoked his Catholicism whereas on the marketing campaign path and spoke at numerous spiritual gatherings. As well as, each the DNC and the Biden campaign produced advertisements for tv and digital platforms focused at Catholic voters.
Biden additionally organized aggressive outreach to Black Protestants all through his marketing campaign and secured assist from 91% of the demographic by Election Day in 2020, in keeping with Pew. The experiences didn’t present 2016 information on the group for comparability.
Researchers famous Biden additionally expanded Democratic assist amongst a quickly increasing subset of the American spiritual panorama: individuals who declare no spiritual affiliation in any way.
The group has lengthy skewed closely liberal, with Clinton profitable 65% of their votes in comparison with Trump’s 24% in 2016. Trump fared barely higher with the group final 12 months (26%), however Biden boasted 71%, drawing on heavy assist from subsets corresponding to atheists (87%) and agnostics (84%).
Nonetheless, Trump seems to have made surprising positive aspects with one other unaffiliated subset — specifically, individuals who reply questions on spiritual affiliation by deciding on “nothing particularly.” Biden received the identical proportion of the group as Clinton (61%), however Trump elevated his assist from 27% in 2016 to 35% in 2020.